The Oscars are
here! If you haven’t seen many (or any) of this year’s films, you'll need a cheat
sheet for your office pool or Sunday night Academy Awards party. I win my pool
more often than not and it’s a rare year when I don’t finish in the top three.
If you are staring at your ballot in confusion, copy mine. I won't tell.
Need a
printable PDF of the 2020 Academy Award categories and nominees? Entertainment Weekly has one here,
or you can use use this one from Variety.
Ready to start
circling your winners? Here are my predictions:
Best
Picture:
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a
Time…in Hollywood
Parasite
There’s talk
for The Irishman, but wow…did it feel long, which will cost the film
votes. This is a contest between 1917, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (both of
which won Best Picture Golden Globes, in Drama and in Musical/Comedy
respectively), and Parasite, which has swept the international awards and has
earned raves worldwide. Though I haven’t yet seen Parasite—it’s on my must-see
list—my personal pick between 1917 and Once Upon a Time would be 1917. I loved its
depth of emotion and single-shot style, which made me feel like I was weaving
through the trenches and left dangerously exposed in No Man’s Land right along
with the main characters. But man…Hollywood loves to analyze and laugh
at itself, and that’s Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood.
I’ve
flip-flopped endlessly on this category. Since the Academy went to ten nominees in
this category, it's tougher to predict the winner, and the statue
hasn’t gone to a frontrunner as often as it has in the past (hello, Moonlight.)
This year, the frontrunner is 1917. The spoiler would be Parasite. I’m going to take what
shouldn’t be a risk, but feels like one given recent Academy history: 1917.
But I'll note: my husband picked Parasite.
Actor In A
Leading Role
Antonio
Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo
DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Adam Driver,
Marriage Story
Joaquin
Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce,
The Two Popes
This is a
category jam-packed with talent, but it’s Joaquin Phoenix’s year.
Actor In A
Supporting Role
Tom Hanks, A
Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony
Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The
Irishman
Joe Pesci, The
Irishman
Brad Pitt,
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Loved, loved
Brad Pitt in this. Give him the statue and expect a fun yet heartfelt speech.
Trivia game answer of the night: Pitt is the only nominee in this category who
doesn’t already have a statue in an acting category (though he does have one as a producer on 12 Years a Slave.)
Actress In A
Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo,
Harriet
Scarlett
Johansson, Marriage Story
Saorise Ronan,
Little Women
Charlize
Theron, Bombshell
Renée
Zellweger, Judy
Last year,
Vegas had Glenn Close as the heavy favorite, but Olivia Colman walked away with
the man of gold (yes, I called it!) This year, I’m going with the favorite:
Renée Zellweger. She became Judy Garland. If you feel like picking a spoiler,
Scarlett Johannson is your best choice, but I wouldn’t.
Actress In A
Supporting Role
Kathy Bates,
Richard Jewell
Laura Dern,
Marriage Story
Scarlett
Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh,
Little Women
Margot Robbie,
Bombshell
This is where I
must mention that I desperately want to see Jojo Rabbit, but it isn’t playing
near me. Every time I see a trailer, I laugh. It looks amazing and the
reviews for Johansson’s performance are phenomenal. But this is a lock for
Laura Dern. She’s swept all the earlier awards in this category.
Directing
Martin
Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips,
Joker
Sam Mendes,
1917
Quentin
Tarantino. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho,
Parasite
This is a tough
category. There’s a lot of love for Tarantino amongst Academy members and
Parasite’s success has garnered a lot of attention for Bong Joon Ho’s work. But
Mendes won the Directors’ Guild Award and the Golden Globe. I’m going with
Mendes. If you’re in the mood to make a spoiler-ish pick, it’d be Bong Joon Ho.
Animated
Feature Film
How To Train Your
Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
Easy peasy.
Documentary
Feature
American
Factory
The Cave
The Edge of
Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland
Friends
recommended I see American Factory long before awards season, and I almost
never hear raves for documentaries that soon after their release. American
Factory is my pick.
Documentary
Short Subject
In the Absence
Leaning to
Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
Life Overtakes
Me
St. Louis
Superman
Walk Run
Cha-Cha
I’m picking
this on the title alone, which is what I suspect a sizeable number of Academy
voters do. If another title rocks your world, go with it.
Cinematography
Rodrigo Prieto,
The Irishman
Lawrence Sher,
Joker
Jarin Blaschke,
The Lighthouse
Roger
Deakins, 1917
Robert
Richardson, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
1917’s
cinematography brought viewers right into wartime France’s bombed out villages
and smoky, muddy trenches. It made this film powerful and memorable. I’m
picking Deakins.
Costume
Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Once Upon a
Time…in Hollywood
Hollywood loves
to give this award to a period piece like Little Women. While I adore the look
of Jojo Rabbit, I’m making a safety pick here.
Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Parasite
This is a
category I consider too close to call. Since I have to, I’m picking Parasite. The
other strong possibility: Ford v Ferrari.
International
Feature Film/Foreign Language Film
Corpus Christi,
Poland
Honeyland,
North Macedonia
Les Miséables,
France
Pain and Glory,
Spain
Parasite,
South Korea
Lock.
Music,
Original Score
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Star Wars: The
Rise of Skywalker
I’m partial to
Little Women’s Alexandre Desplat, whose original score for Girl With a Pearl
Earring is in heavy rotation on my playlist of writing background music.
However, Iceland’s Hildur Gudnadóttir won the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and Critics’
Choice for her work on Joker. She’s my pick.
Music,
Original Song
“I Can’t Let
You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4
“(I’m Gonna)
Love Me Again,” Rocketman
“I’m Standing
With You,” Breakthrough
“Into the
Unknown,” Frozen II
“Stand Up,” Harriet
While “Into the
Unknown” has a good shot, I’m betting Elton John and Bernie Taupin’s name
recognition take this one home.
Production
Design
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Once Upon a
Time…in Hollywood
Parasite
This is a tough
call between World War I and 1969 Hollywood. In this category, I’m betting on
the nostalgic recreation of Hollywood, which managed to evoke both its grit and
its glamour.
Visual
Effects
Avengers:
Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
1917
Star Wars: The
Rise of Skywalker
I think this
will be a tight race between The Irishman, with its reverse aging technology,
and 1917. I’m going WWI.
Makeup and
Hairstyling
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent:
Mistress of Evil
1917
Charlize
Theron, Margot Robbie, and Nicole Kidman inhabited their roles in part
due to the excellent work of the makeup and hairstyling teams on Bombshell.
It’s my choice here.
Sound
Editing
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a
Time…in Hollywood
Star Wars: The
Rise of Skywalker
Sound Mixing
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a
Time…in Hollywood
Action movies
like Fury Road, which won six Academy Awards including statues for visual
effects and production design, make me think that Ford v Ferrari has a serious
shot here. Revving engines, quick cuts, and squealing tires will do that. But
I’m going for the bombs and earth-shaking trench collapses of 1917. Sound has
the power to elicit emotion, and in 1917 it was wildly effective.
Writing,
Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes
Greta Gerwig is
a favorite for her unique and highly respected interpretation of Little Women,
but Hollywood (and writers) love to reward the offbeat. This year, that’s
Jojo Rabbit, a wild satire of Hitler youth.
Writing,
Original Screenplay
Knives Out
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a
Time…in Hollywood
Parasite
I’ve raved to
friends about how much I love the screenplay for Knives Out. It’s a fabulous,
entertaining movie (really, go see it.) But sadly, it won't win. Hollywood pundits argue that the statue
should go to Quentin Tarantino for Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood. I’m going
with Parasite, which picked up the BAFTA.
Short Film,
Animated
Dcera (Daughter)
Hair Love
Kitbull
Memorable
Sister
Short Film,
Live Action
Brotherhood
Nefta Football
Club
The
Neighbors’ Window
Saria
A Sister
I’m going on
gut instinct and brief glimpses with these picks. I’m more confident in Hair
Love than in my choice of The Neighbors’ Window, though. Oddsmakers keep shifting between
The Neighbors’ Window and Brotherhood. Frankly, I like the concept of Nefta
Football Club, a French film that’s more lighthearted than the rest of the
pack, but lighthearted rarely wins Oscar in this category.
Aside from the
winners, I predict that: 1) Idina Menzel will bring down the house with her
Original Song performance; 2) viewers will be shocked—shocked!—that Renée
Zellweger sounds Texan; and 3) the In Memoriam presentation will get a massive cheer for Kirk
Douglas, who passed away earlier this week at the age of 103. He more than earned one.
Now it’s your
turn. What are your predictions? Which movies have you seen and enjoyed? Any that
were nominated that made you shake your head? Comment away!
No comments:
Post a Comment