Oscar Predictions 2016

Prediction Number One: This Sunday night, I will spend the pre-awards, red carpet time on my treadmill, ogling all the gorgeous gowns at this year's Academy Awards. During the last ten minutes of reporter babble, as the nominees take their seats, I’ll sprint for the shower. By Chris Rock's opening monologue, I'll be parked in front of the television with my marked-up ballot in hand.

Prediction Number Two:  I will not make it to the first commercial break before I uncork a bottle of wine.

Prediction Number Three: I’ll finish at or near the top of my Oscar pool, because I LOVE making these predictions and spend far too much time on them. If you’re participating in an Academy Awards pool, take the time to do some research on the so-called minor categories. If you nail a few of those, you’ll have a huge edge on everyone else in your pool. If you’re too lazy or time-crunched to research, feel free crib my list.


Best Picture 

Nominees:
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Winner:
The Revenant

-- It wouldn’t be my personal pick—too long, too cold, too many plot holes—but The Revenant it is.


Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Winner:
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

-- Matt Damon was incredible in The Martian. However, at long last, this is Leo’s year. I’ll be a spoilsport and say I wish he wasn’t winning for this role. While his performance was stellar, I wasn’t the biggest fan of The Revenant. I’d have much rather seen Leo win for The Aviator, The Departed, or What’s Eating Gilbert Grape. (If you haven’t seen Gilbert Grape, DO IT NOW. Fabulous flick.) While I didn't consider the movie worthy of his performance, pick Leo. This year's Oscar is all his and I suspect he’ll receive a well-deserved standing ovation when he takes the stage.


Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees:
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Winner:
Brie Larson, Room


Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees:
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Winner:
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

-- Tom Hardy’s performance was the best thing about The Revenant. Without his cold, evil antagonist, we wouldn’t care about Leo’s character. However, Stallone knocked it out of the park in Creed and this is his year. Michael B. Jordan also deserves a shout for his stellar acting in Creed. If Stallone takes the stage, he should mention the compelling nature of Jordan’s performance. If you haven’t seen Creed, do. It deserved more nominations.


Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees:
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Winner:
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

-- While Kate Winslet snagged a Golden Globe and press photos of Kate and Leo holding Oscars would be adorable, this is Vikander’s year.


Best Director

Nominees:
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Winner:
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant

-- Don’t be surprised if George Miller pulls off a win here. Mad Max: Fury Road was fifteen years in the making and has a slew of other nominations. However, the buzz around Hollywood is for Iñárritu.


Original Screenplay

Nominees:
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

Winner:
Spotlight


Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room

Winner:
The Big Short


Foreign Language Film

Nominees:
Embrace of the Serpent, Columbia
Mustang, France
Son of Saul, Hungary
Theeb, Jordan
A War, Denmark

Winner:
Son of Saul, Hungary

-- Mustang has been making a late run (see what I did there?), but I predict Son of Saul takes home Oscar.


Production Design

Nominees:
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Winner:  
Mad Max: Fury Road


Makeup

Nominees:
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
The Revenant

Winner:
Mad Max: Fury Road


Animated Feature Film

Nominees:
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

Winner:
Inside Out

-- One of the few non-acting categories this year that’s a lock. Run with it.


Sound Editing

Nominees:
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Winner:
Mad Max: Fury Road



Sound Mixing

Nominees:
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Winner:
Mad Max: Fury Road


Visual Effects

Nominees:
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Winner:
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

-- This is a tough call. If not Star Wars, then pick Mad Max: Fury Road. The two are neck and neck here. I’m going for Star Wars, since Mad Max is likely to take home a slew of other categories.


Cinematography

Nominees:
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

Winner:
The Revenant


Documentary Feature

Nominees:
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Winner:
Amy

-- I consider Amy a lock. If your pool includes this category, take Amy for an easy point.


Documentary Short Subject

Nominees:
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Prince of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom

Winner:
Body Team 12


Film Editing

Nominees:
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Winner:
Mad Max: Fury Road


Short Film, Animated

Nominees:
Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay’s Super Team
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow

Winner:
Sanjay’s Super Team

-- Both World of Tomorrow and Bear Story have a lot of love. I believe voters will split on those, which is why I'm going with Pixar and Sanjay.


Short Film, Live Action

Nominees:
Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
Shok
Stutterer

Winner:
Shok


Costume Design

Nominees:
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Winner:
Mad Max: Fury Road

-- Many experts have picked Cinderella, so be aware that I’m taking a risk with this one.


Original Score

Nominees:
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Winner:
The Hateful Eight

-- Ennio Morricone, who scored the movie, falls into the “it’s his time” category.  Plus it’s darned good. Pick it.


Original Song

Nominees:
“Earned It,” Fifty Shades of Grey
“Manta Ray,” Racing Extinction
“Simple Son #3,” Youth
“Til It Happens To You,” The Hunting Ground
“Writing’s On The Wall,” Spectre

Winner:
“Til It Happens To You,” The Hunting Ground

-- This is one of the tougher categories. “Til It Happens To You,”was performed by Lady Gaga and written by eight-time nominee Diane Warren, which makes it hard to beat despite the fact both "Earned It" and "Writing's On The Wall" have a lot of buzz (and "Writing's On The Wall" won the Golden Globe.) Know that "Manta Ray" and "Simple Son #3" don't have a chance.

All right...those are my official picks. There are some close calls in the sound categories, but I’m confident in my acting, directing, and animated feature picks. Go forth and win your pool, enjoy Sunday night's show, and let me know how you do!