Oscar Predictions 2018

I've been on the road for much of the last month, so I'm posting this year's predictions close to the wire. However, if you're heading to an Academy Awards party tonight and filling out your ballot at the last minute, you could do worse that cribbing my picks, as I finish near or at the top of my pool each year. The trick is knowing the contenders in the so-called little categories such as Live Action Short or Documentary Feature. Get a few of these, or the sound categories, and you'll be leaps and bounds ahead of those who focused only on the acting categories when making their predictions.

My picks for tonight are in bold. Where I've gone against the consensus of those who do this professionally--say, the gurus at Variety or well-known film critics--I've made a note. Good luck, movie lovers! (And be sure to count the number of Moonlight vs. La La Land envelope jokes tonight. My prediction is four.)

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

- The heavy favorite here is Gary Oldman. I’m taking a serious flyer on Timothée Chalamet. If you want the safer pick, go Oldman.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Meryl Streep, The Post

- As close to a lock in an acting category as you’ll get tonight. 

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

- My heart says Laurie Metcalf, because she is AWESOME. My head says Allison Janney. Want victory in your pool? Janney's your more likely winner.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

The Boss Baby

The Breadwinner

Coco

Ferdinand

Loving Vincent

- Closest thing to a lock you'll see all night.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Mudbound

The Shape of Water

COSTUME DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast

Darkest Hour

Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water

Victoria & Abdul

- While I adored the look of Victoria & Abdul, hello…PHANTOM THREAD? About a costume designer? It’ll win this category.

DIRECTING

Dunkirk

Get Out

Lady Bird

Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail

Faces Places

Icarus

Last Men in Aleppo

Strong Island

- Take your pick between Faces Places and The Last Men in Aleppo. I’m going Faces Places.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Edith+Eddie

Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405

Heroin(e)

Knife Skills

Traffic Stop

FILM EDITING

Baby Driver

Dunkirk

I, Tonya

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

- Dunkirk is probably the favorite here, but I’m going to pick Baby Driver.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A Fantastic Woman (Chile)

The Insult (Lebanon)

Loveless (Russia)

On Body and Soul (Hungary)

The Square (Sweden)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Darkest Hour

Victoria & Abdul

Wonder

- Darkest Hour, because everyone who knows makeup and hairstyling says so. Also, though Gary Oldman manages to transform into a different person with each new role, the physical transformation here is extraordinary.

ORIGINAL SCORE

Dunkirk

Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

- Because I love Alexandre Desplat’s work and frequently listen to his soundtrack for Girl With a Pearl Earring while I write, I’m going Desplat and The Shape of Water.

ORIGINAL SONG

“Mighty River,” Mudbound

“Mystery Of Love,” Call Me by Your Name

“Remember Me,” Coco

“Stand Up For Something,” Marshall

“This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

- This category is a tough choice between Blade Runner 2049 and The Shape of Water. I’m choosing the latter, but if Blade Runner 2049 has your heart, run with it.

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Dear Basketball

Garden Party

Lou

Negative Space

Revolting Rhymes

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

DeKalb Elementary

The Eleven O'Clock

My Nephew Emmett

The Silent Child

Watu Wote/All of Us

SOUND EDITING

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

SOUND MIXING

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

- A heads up: Baby Driver could win either or both of Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. It’s a tight race (so to speak) between Baby Driver and Dunkirk. I’m going Dunkirk.

VISUAL EFFECTS

Blade Runner 2049

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Kong: Skull Island

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

War for the Planet of the Apes

- Not feeling it for the apes? Then go Blade Runner 2049. These two are in a tight race.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me by Your Name

The Disaster Artist

Logan

Molly's Game

Mudbound

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Big Sick

Get Out

Lady Bird

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

- I’d love to see either Get Out or The Big Sick, but I predict the award goes to Get Out.

BEST PICTURE

Call Me by Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Get Out

Lady Bird

Phantom Thread

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

- The top contenders here are The Shape of Water, Three Billboards, Get Out, and Call Me By Your Name, probably in that order. Three Billboards has received a huge push throughout awards season, while The Shape of Water appears to be the favorite. However, I’m going out on a limb with Get Out.