Once
again, the Academy Awards are upon us (why does it seem to arrive sooner every
year?), which means the time has come to make picks for your office pool or Sunday night Oscar party based, at least in part, on films you haven’t seen. And, once
again, I’ll post my predictions in the hope you’ll have a better shot at taking
home that Starbucks gift card or Solo cup of dollar bills set aside for the
winner.
Need a printable PDF of the 2019 Academy Award categories and nominees? People Magazine has one here, or you can use this one from Vanity Fair.
My predictions:
Best
Picture:
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian
Rhapsody
The
Favourite
Green
Book
Roma
A
Star Is Born
Vice
There’s
talk for Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, and Roma in this category. They’ve each won
awards this season, yet several have their detractors. Some don’t think a
streaming movie (Roma) or a Marvel superhero picture (Black Panther) should be
named the year’s best. Then there are controversies around both Bohemian
Rhapsody (accusations against its original director, Bryan Singer) and Green
Book (the question of who best tells the story of racism in America.) That
would leave The Favourite, but the quirky, darkly comic story about Queen
Anne’s reign isn’t everyone’s cup of tea. Current oddsmakers would urge you to
pick Roma, particularly given that the Academy is becoming a more international
body. I’m going out on a thin, shaky limb for Black Panther.
Actor
In A Leading Role
Christian
Bale, Vice
Bradley
Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem
Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek,
Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo
Mortensen, Green Book
I
walked out of the theater after seeing Bohemian Rhapsody saying, “He’d better
be nominated for an Oscar.” Now I hope he wins one. Malek’s Freddie Mercury was
a riveting and memorable performance.
Actor
In A Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali,
Green Book
Adam
Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam
Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard
E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam
Rockwell, Vice
Actress
In A Leading Role
Yalitza
Aparicio, Roma
Glenn
Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The
Favourite
Lady
Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa
McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
The
bookies in Vegas have Glenn Close as the heavy favorite. Keep that in mind if
you go with my pick here. A win for Colman would be an upset.
Actress
In A Supporting Role
Amy
Adams, Vice
Marina
de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale
Street Could Talk
Emma
Stone, The Favourite
Rachel
Weisz, The Favourite
Directing
Alfonso Cuarón,
Roma
Yorgos
Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike
Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam
McKay, Vice
Pawel
Pawlikowski, Cold War
Cuarón
won a BAFTA, Directors Guild, and Golden Globe for directing Roma. Though
there’s a lot of sentiment for Spike Lee, I suspect Cuarón will walk off stage
with the statue. If you want to take a risk with your ballot, this is a category where it could
pay off if you pick Spike Lee.
Animated
Feature Film
Incredibles
2
Isle
of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph
Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Inter
the Spider-Verse
One
of the few categories I’d call a lock.
Documentary
Feature
Free
Solo
Hale
County This Morning, This Evening
Minding
the Gap
Of
Fathers and Sons
RBG
Free
Solo won the BAFTA, but I’m going with RBG for the Oscar win.
Cinematography
Cold
War
The
Favourite
Never
Look Away
Roma
A
Star Is Born
Costume
Design
The
Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The
Favourite
Mary
Poppins Returns
Mary
Queen of Scots
I
think this category will be a race between Black Panther and The Favourite. I’m
going with Black Panther, as the costumes were integral to the overall vibe of the
film and the story behind the fictional Wakanda. However, Academy voters almost always go with sumptuous
period pieces in this category, so be aware that traditionalists will cast
their votes for The Favourite.
Film
Editing
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The
Favourite
Green
Book
Vice
I
admit, this was a tough pick. Vice and The Favourite are also strong contenders
here.
Foreign
Language Film
Capernaum
Cold
War
Never
Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters
Though Cold War has a lot of buzz and
would win in many other years, 2019 belongs to Roma.
Music, Original Score
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If
Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
Music, Original Song
“All The Stars,” Black Panther
“I’ll Fight,” RBG
“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary
Poppins Returns
“Shallow,”
A Star Is Born
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for
Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Another lock. Go with “Shallow.”
Production Design
Black
Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
As with Costume Design, I suspect votes
will split between Black Panther and The Favourite, though Roma also has a shot
here. I waffled, but went with Black Panther for the same reason
I chose it for Best Costume Design. If one of the other films has your heart,
go with it. This is one of those up-in-the-air categories that will make the
2019 ceremony interesting.
Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First
Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
This is a coin flip between Avengers:
Infinity War and First Man. I’m betting on First Man.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice
I’d never have imagined Sam Rockwell and
Christian Bale portraying George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. When I saw the
trailer for Vice, I was stunned by their physical transformations. The hair and
makeup professionals on this film are true artists, and Bale gave them
heartfelt thanks in his Golden Globe speech. Go with Vice.
Sound Editing
Black Panther
Bohemian
Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Vice
I wouldn’t be surprised to see First Man
take this, but I’m circling Bohemian Rhapsody on my ballot.
Sound Mixing
Black Panther
Bohemian
Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Bohemian Rhapsody nabbed the BAFTA in this
category, but again, First Man would be a solid pick for your pool.
Writing, Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
This is one of the night’s unpredictable
categories. BlacKkKlansman won the BAFTA, while Can You Ever Forgive Me? won
the Writers Guild and If Beale Street Could Talk picked up the Critics Choice. I’m
going with BlacKkKlansman. Academy members want to see an Oscar in Spike Lee’s
hands, and this film is deserving.
Writing, Original Screenplay
The
Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice
Another tough category to predict, as The
Favourite won the BAFTA and Green Book picked up the Golden Globe in this category.
Given the international voting pool and the unique script, I’m going with The
Favourite.
Short Film, Animated
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends
Short Subject, Documentary
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period.
End of Sentence
If you read predictions from five or more
experts, you’ll see each of these films mentioned as the likely winner. Throw a
dart at this category. I’m going for optimism.
Short Film, Live Action
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin
Aside from the winners, I predict that: 1)
Regina King will be one of the best dressed women; 2) Mahershala Ali will
deliver a solemn but uplifting speech sure to be quoted on Monday morning news
programs; 3) Lady Gaga will wear a necklace valued at over a million dollars,
requiring her to have a separate security detail specifically for the jewelry;
and 4) Barbra Streisand’s nails will be the star of her envelope opening.
What about you? Which movies and
performances caught your attention? Any predictions for the show itself? Feel
free to post to the comments!
