Oscar Predictions 2017

It’s that time of year…grab your pens and mark your ballots, because Jimmy Kimmel is about to take the stage to host the 89^th Academy Awards. You don’t have to have seen all the movies to win your pool. The key is narrowing your choices on the so-called smaller categories so you get those right and making (mostly) safe bets in the well-known categories. Want to make it even easier? I win my pool more often than not, so feel free to take my predictions and make them your own. You’ll do better than guessing blind.

Without further ado, my picks for 2017:
  
BEST PICTURE  
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

This is La La Land’s year. I predict it will take home the prize. However, Moonlight has a shot, so if you want to go against the grain, that’s your best chance at picking an upset in this category. That being said, I highly recommend you see Hell or High Water. It hasn’t received the attention of some of the other films in this category, but it’s well worth your time. Jeff Bridges, Chris Pine, and Ben Foster are excellent, as is Gil Birmingham. 

BEST DIRECTOR
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge  
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

There’s a lot of buzz for Barry Jenkins and his incredible work on Moonlight. However, your best bet is to go with Damien Chazelle for the original musical La La Land. Trivia: if he does take home Oscar, it’d make him the youngest Best Director winner at the age of 32.

BEST ACTOR Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic  
Denzel Washington, Fences

This is a tough category. Casey Affleck won BAFTA and Golden Globe awards for his performance, while Denzel Washington took home the SAG award. The odds say Affleck, so that’s your safe bet. I’m going out on a limb and picking Denzel Washington.

BEST ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie  
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Isabelle Huppert won a Golden Globe for drama, Emma Stone for musical/comedy. I predict the Oscar will go to Emma Stone.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR  
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Dev Patel won the BAFTA, and I loved Jeff Bridges’ performance in Hell or High Water, where the dialogue was pitch-perfect for his character. However, I predict the award will go to Mahershala Ali, who won the SAG and has a lot of buzz. I haven’t seen Moonlight yet, but the clips shown at the SAG awards combined with his acceptance speech made me want to see it as soon as possible.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS  
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

This is one of the categories I consider a lock. Check Viola Davis on your ballot.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY  
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

This is a close race between Manchester by the Sea and La La Land (though again, I thought the writing in Hell or High Water was brilliant.) I’m picking Manchester by the Sea to win.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY  
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

All the pundits say Moonlight. I won’t go against them.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY  
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

Again, go La La Land.

BEST FILM EDITING  
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

The war drama Hacksaw Ridge and the science fiction thriller Arrival both have a chance here, but given its momentum, I’m picking La La Land.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS  
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

I’m going with the BAFTA winner to pick up the Oscar: The Jungle Book

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers

The safe bet here is La La Land.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN  
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

This is a tight race between La La Land and Jackie. I’m going with Jackie, simply to break up the La La Land list of wins.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING  
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

I’ve seen predictions for all three films. I’m going Star Trek Beyond because I am a Trek fan and thought the alien makeup was excellent.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

Go with the musical: La La Land.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls  
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

This is one of the tougher categories. There’s a lot of positive energy for Lin-Manuel Miranda and “How Far I’ll Go.” However, I predict the award will go to La La Land’s “City of Stars.” Hollywood loves an emotional song about Los Angeles.

BEST SOUND MIXING  
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Arrival won the BAFTA here, and La La Land is a juggernaut. However, there are two factors that make me lean toward Hacksaw Ridge. First, it’s a war movie, and war movies do well in this category (gunshots, fighting, machinery, screams…it takes mastery to get that right.) Second, Kevin O’Connell has his 21^st nomination here without a win. I think Academy members want to see him take home a statue for his years of great work in this category. If Hacksaw Ridge doesn’t do it for you, go for La La Land. When war movies don’t win, the prize often goes to a musical (Chicago and Dreamgirls are past winners here.)

BEST SOUND EDITING  
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

The safe bet is La La Land, but I’m going Hacksaw Ridge. 


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

It’s already won a ton of awards, so I’m going with Zootopia. This should be one of the easier picks.

BEST DOCUMENTARY  
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13^th

I listened to a radio show about 13^th that kept me sitting in my car after I arrived at my destination and made me think about its topic of African-American males in the prison system for some time afterward. However, the O.J. story is familiar to voters, so I’m picking O.J.: Made in America to win.

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM  
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann

Germany’s Toni Erdmann and Sweden’s A Man Called Ove had all the love when the nominees were announced. However, in recent weeks The Salesman, which concerns two actors and their performance of Death of a Salesman in Tehran, has received attention for its politics as well as for the quality of the film. The Iranian director has spoken out against the US travel ban on his country. If you think politics will sway voters in this category, pick The Salesman, which is also the pick of the oddsmakers. If not, go with A Man Called Ove. 


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT  
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

I haven’t seen any of these, but I listened to an intriguing NPR story about The White Helmets that made me want to find it. I’m picking The White Helmets. If you want to make a riskier pick, go with Joe’s Violin, the story of a Holocaust survivor and the preteen girl who’s given his violin, which also has a shot at the award.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT  
Ennemis Interieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode

Ennemis Interieurs (Enemies Within) seems to be the pick of most Hollywood bloggers, though with its upbeat tone, La Femme et le TGV could pull off the upset. I’m defying the blogosphere and choosing the happiness of La Femme et le TGV.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT  
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

Piper, by the brilliant folks at Pixar, was the lead-in to Finding Dory. That makes it the most familiar short to Academy voters. I give it the win.

My other predictions for the night? Jimmy Kimmel will make at least three Trump-specific jokes, but given the formality of the Oscars, I doubt he’ll hammer the topic as hard as you see on most late night television. There will be at least one mention of Beyonce and Jay-Z’s twins/George and Amal Clooney’s twins. I also predict at least one joke aimed at whether or not there will be a 90^th Academy Awards show (possibly made in combination with a fourth Trump joke.)

There you have it, my thoughts on Oscar 2017. Feel free to share yours, and have a wonderful Oscar night.